According to the Environment Agency, eight million homes in England will be at risk of flooding from rivers and the sea or surface water by mid-century due to climate change.
The claim was made in its recent National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024.
It expects us to believe that one in four properties, 46% of the road network and 54% of the rail network will be affected by floods.
The claims are based on the Met Office’s UKCP18 climate projections, now known to be worthless junk as they are based on the “implausible” emission scenario, RCP8.5.
But even ignoring RCP8.5, the Environment Agency’s claims still have zero credibility. They assume, for instance, that sea levels will rise by more than one metre before the end of the century, and maybe as much as two metres. Based on historical tide gauge data, the figure is unlikely to exceed 100mm.
