Human-caused climate change could increase flood damage to commercial property in parts of Europe by as much as 800% over the next 30 years compared to the period 1990-2016, according to a recent paper published by the UK Met Office. The paper’s findings are aimed at pension fund investors so they can “better understand” the risks in a changing climate. In fact, the findings belong in clown land since they are all based on the assumptions fed into climate computer models known as RCP8.5. Earlier this year, RCP8.5 was declared “implausible” by a sub-committee of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that was preparing groundwork for a major new assessment report.
Implausible Day was April 7th 2026, and quite why the Met Office continues to use this garbage in, garbage out computer model scenario is a complete mystery. RCP8.5 became the normal basis for many media clickbait scare headlines over the last 15 years, and it was ruthlessly used to back the political Net Zero fantasy. Even activist scientists must now realise that with its fanciful assumptions of runaway population growth and coal-use higher than known reserves, it is a busted flush. All it seems except the blinkers-wearing boffins at the bumbling British Met Office.
Its latest paper is called ‘Assessing financial risk to property portfolios from physical rainfall extremes’. And where do the Met Office authors get estimates for “extreme” rainfall? Surprise, surprise, another Met Office work called UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) that only used a RCP8.5 computer run to claim summer temperature in the UK would be 5°C higher by 2070, while rainfall would be much lower in the warmer months and considerably higher in the winter. Excellent Net Zero messaging here of course, with future drought and flooding helping to scare everyone witless. Needless to say, the ghastly UKCP18 report should have been withdrawn last April, preferably with a fulsome apology for all the trouble it has caused with its whacky forecasts. Of course it wasn’t, and its pathetic presence is still stinking up the science joint.
The new Met Office research examines flood risk across north-east Europe, covering the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, parts of France, Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Norway and Sweden. The findings from the 1990-2016 baseline are striking. Across the study region, the authors claim that there will be widespread increases in annual damage with only 0.1% of locations showing no change. Many areas showed increases exceeding 20%, while some individual 100-metre grid cells claimed rises of up to 800%. The authors specifically identified central London, Hamburg and Odense as areas where guesstimated flood damage was particularly pronounced.
The authors claim their findings “highlight the urgent need for financial actors, such as asset managers, to integrate physical climate risk into decision-making to safeguard long-term financial resilience”. Who knows what this waffle means, but indications elsewhere in the report suggest, as with most matters Net Zero, the dishing out loads of dosh at a problem juiced up by junk computer findings.
The Met Office paper only uses ‘high emissions’ RCP8.5 in determining all the future climate projections. The authors seem to justify using this junk scenario since they state that the projected warming during 2024-2056 remains within the range of plausible temperatures under other pathways. There is no such excuse for the rainfall guesses.
It is therefore obvious that the authors were aware of the IPCC implausible ruling since attempts are made to justify its continued use. For starters, they only had UKCP18 to use for their underlying rainfall estimates and that flawed work only used RCP8.5. It seems they were obliged to fess up since buried in the report is the admission that the flooding results “should be interpreted as illustrative of a more extreme pathway”. Well, we kinda knew that. Consider a company board presented with a spreadsheet analysis showing that profits would rise by 800% if all competition was eliminated and customer prices were tripled. Rather than waste valuable time on nonsense ‘what iffery’, executives might decide for a good laugh to consider the findings later after a few drinks in the pub.
Interestingly, a purportedly “plausible” argument around RCP8.5 was used last summer at the height of a series of UK heatwaves which saw the Met Office produce a pretend weather forecast suggesting the highest recorded temperature in England would rise 5°C in 30 years to 45°C, “This scenario is not a forecast of a specific event, but a scientific plausible illustration designed to help us understand how risks could change as the climate warms,” informed the Met Office. By using Met Office projections, “it is a stark realisation to see the maximum temperature reach 45°C”, added the operation’s Chief Scientist Professor Stephen Belcher.
The Met Office did not mention how it created its “plausible” illustration, but its suggestion of 45°C days is remarkable similar to the projections contained in RCP8.5-riddled UKCP18.
The only stark realisation to flow from this worthless agitprop and the compromised flood paper is that the Met Office seems determined to continue using RCP8.5 even as the rest of the climate science community tries to organise a dignified retreat.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor. Follow him on X. His new book IMPLAUSIBLE: How scientists, activist politicians and journalists invented a climate crisis, weaponised junk computer model findings and claimed a fake consensus to promote the collectivist Net Zero fantasy is out now on Amazon and only £3.99 for the download and £8.99 for the paperback – five-star customer rated.
It’s all really quite simple, The Met Office is subservient to the British deep state and its titular head, who we all know has been banging on for decades about “climate change”, aka alleged man-made global warming.
The deep state has spoken, and all must obey! That means all the legacy political parties, all state organisations like the Met Office, the media and overseas affiliates, all with coordinated messaging and woe betide anyone who fails to conform to the official narrative.
For details read my post all the way through to its bleak conclusion: https://thinkscotland.org/2026/11/the-economy-wrecking-incoherence-of-net-zero/.