Met Office Faces Fresh Scandal Over its "Implausible" Climate Projections Report at the Heart of UK Net Zero Fantasy

The credibility of the underlying modelling lies in tatters after IPCC ruling

In 2018, the Met Office published its ‘UK Climate Projections’ report (UKCP18) forecasting several weather extremes including a suggestion that summer temperatures could be 5.1°C higher by 2070. Needless to say, the forecast captured mainstream media headlines at the time, and to this day the report is a foundational source for most UK governmental and private company climate change regulation and spending. Just one problem – it is now officially junk. The Met Office only ran a RCP8.5 set of assumptions through its super-computer, the results of which it then proceeded to highlight. To retain scientific integrity, the Met Office must remove this deeply flawed work with a notification that any policies arising from its discredited figures should be re-examined.

The recent dismissal of the RCP8.5 pathway assumptions by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as “implausible” has sent shock waves through mainstream media and science. It has effectively destroyed trust in mainstream climate reporting since journalists for nearly two decades have been faithfully promoting BS arising from RCP8.5 findings. But it also casts doubt on much of the underlying science work that has whipped up a convenient Net Zero climate crisis psychosis. Among the ridiculous RCP8.5 assumptions was global population hitting 12 billion by 2100 (it is currently forecast to stabilise at around 9-10 billion) and more coal used than current proven reserves.

The Met Office’s UKCP18 is a real shocker. Bold type was used to highlight all the extreme findings based on RCP8.5 including massive rises in temperature within 50 years (5.1°C in summer and 3.8°C in winter) and significant drops and increases in summer and winter rainfall respectively. Sea-level rises in London up to 1.15 metres were forecast by 2100, and this compares with a current annual uplift of three thousandths of a metre today – less than a quarter of the rate. Given the recent “implausible” finding, it is ironic that the Met Office terms its bold-type numbers as “plausible”. That alone should be grounds to remove these hopeless guesses immediately.

There are a number of RCP pathways suggesting lower greenhouse gas emissions, but the Met Office used just RCP8.5 for its computer modelling. The high-resolution global modelling down to 60 km, the regional down to 12 km and local to 2.2 km used only RCP8.5 directly due to computational costs. Other results were available – not in bold type of course – and these were said to be statistically derived from the RCP8.5 runs. The phrase ‘garbage in, garbage out’ comes immediately to mind.