Millions of Homes at Risk from Climate Change, Claims British Geological Survey in New Report Relying on Discredited Modelling

More scaremongering based on "implausible" RCP8.5

Millions of homes are at risk from climate-related subsidence, according to an analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS).

The Guardian reports:

As hotter, drier summers driven by global heating become more frequent, the ground under houses can shrink and drag down a property’s foundations. The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex, Kent and a tranche of land from Oxford up to the Wash on England’s east coast, according to scientists, who say mitigation measures will be needed.

Anna Harrison, a scientist at the BGS, said: “By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence.” ...

In 2025, the UK experienced the warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years. There were £153 million of subsidence-related insurance claims in the first six months of the same year. With climate crisis projections indicating that hotter, drier conditions are likely to become increasingly frequent over the coming century, the number of properties susceptible to subsidence-related shrink-swell is on the rise. ...

Harrison said: “Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink-swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers are projected to continue.”

I am not quite sure why they are mentioning one dry spring last year. Extremely dry springs used to be much more common: